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The 3 Seas Initiative: A European answer to China’s Belt and Road? - A quest to modernise delapidated infrastructure in Central Europe has transformed into a geopolitical contest

David Morris of EUCON, based at Corvinus University of Budapest, writes:

A new infrastructure connectivity initiative in Central Europe is the latest stage for a geopolitical contest. A diverse group of European Union member states in the traditional “buffer zone” between Western Europe and the East have long suffered lagging living standards and weaker economies. Their poorly connected energy and transport infrastructure reflects their history, in particular divided from Western Europe by the Iron Curtain during the long decades of the Cold War.

Nevertheless, in recent years, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe were among the fastest growing economies in Europe. All suffer constraints from significant infrastructure deficits. Rather than see themselves as competitors in the race for infrastructure, 12 countries have united in recent years under the “Three Seas Initiative”, and are looking to boost connectivity for energy security, the digital economy and transportation. The name connects the nations located between the Adriatic, the Baltic and the Black Seas.

Officially launched in 2016 by Croatia and Poland, the 3SI was enthusiastically endorsed by the EU’s strategic partner, the US. The EU was a little more circumspect at first, although it has come around to the significance of the initiative, which covers one third of the EU in area and includes about 100 million EU citizens.
The US support reflects the primary geopolitical purpose behind the 3SI. The opportunity to drive a wedge between Russia and its former zone of influence in Central Europe not only appeals to the US, but promises the added advantage of beefing up US trade and other interests in the region.
If the 3SI can deliver, over time, greater south-north road and energy infrastructure, this will also benefit China, providing new access points to trade and invest in a part of Europe with untapped potential. Ultimately the region’s future technology infrastructure, though, is likely to be determined in Brussels, on an EU-wide basis and according to risk management principles, which has potential to disappoint both superpowers.
The outright loser across all three pillars of the 3SI, energy, transport and tech, appears to be Russia, which will over time simply become less relevant to the economies of Central Europe.

Read his full article, published by the Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter, here. 

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